Greetings and happy holidays from me to everyone out there in Cardsquad land. So I'm getting back into the swing of things after a couple of weeks at home with my family, and although I can honestly say the past few weeks were among the best times I've ever had since our first child entered the world a little more than three years ago, I'm also looking forward a bit to the rigidity of a daily work schedule, and the regular nightly poker sessions that go along with that schedule. And speaking of poker, don't worry from the content of this post -- I have never willingly and was not for this What's He Holding? post playing in a limit holdem tournament. I am growing to enjoy limit holdem in general as I've read and practiced it more and more, but not to the point of actually ponying up my hard-earned cash to play in a limit holdem-only event. No, in this case, the hand I'm going to look at today is from the limit holdem portion of the weekly 30k guaranteed HORSE tournament on full tilt, which I am thrilled to say I managed to win this past Sunday night on New Years Eve, to the tune of nearly $5,000 in cash money. I've got a full writeup of the occasion on my blog, so go check it out if you're interested in reading more about this, my third major online tournament victory in the last year, and my first to start off 2007 with a major bang.

So today's What's He Holding? post occured fairly deep into last Sunday's 30k HORSE tournament, with blinds already up at 300-600, and with my stack sitting at just over 7000, which was just above the average stack size at the time. I look down UTG and find A8o. Normally, this is definitely a folding hand from UTG, especially in no-limit holdem where you can really get burned by playing a dominatable hand like this. But in limit, unlike no-limit, I am much more confident that I can make money if I do have the best hand, and let this thing go early if my read says I am behind, without losing major chips in any case. And, with the blinds really increasing and with me drifting back towards average after an early run, I was feeling the desire to get back involved in the game.

So, I decided I would take a stab here from UTG, knowing I will fold to any raise. But if I'm gonna play a hand like A8o from UTG, limping in is just asking for trouble, so I raised it up instead. Only the player 2 seats to my left called the bet, leaving me heads up to see a flop of 226 rainbow. I elected to check the flop and see what this guy was going to do. He bet out, 300 chips into the 2250 chip pot.

What hand or range of hands should I put this player on right now? How do his preflop actions mesh with his bet now on the flop? What would you suggest I do in response to his lead bet on this raggy, paired flop?

I'll be back tomorrow with my own analysis, discussion of your comments, and the follow-up post to this hand. Please provide your comments as to how to formulate an early read on puyop's likely holding based on what we know so far.

The Suck Bet. This is the phrase coined by Dan Harrington in his seminal no-limt holdem tournament books, Harrington on Holdem, Volumes 1-3, for the move used when you believe you have the best hand at the river, but you want to try to get your opponent to commit a bit more chips to the hand by calling your bet. You know if you move it allin, he is going to fold because his hand isn't that great. You also know that if you check, he will check behind, and you won't make any extra money out of the hand. Instead, you want to try to pick an amount of money to bet on the river that is large enough for you to make it worthwhile to make the bet in the first place, but small enough that your opponent will be willing to pay it off just to make sure you are in fact ahead. Curiously, in this sense the suck bet is simultaneously a trap bet and a value bet at the same time, in that you are trying to both bet low enough to trick your opponent into paying you to see your hand, but also trying to bet for value what you are fairly sure is the best hand right now.

I tend to have a fairly regular range in terms of the size of the suck bets I like to try to lay on people when I know I'm ahead. Of course, if I think someone will call an allin push from me, then that's what I'm doing, period. But, when I think I'm probably ahead, especially where I have already thrown in some slow-playage earlier in the hand to plant the idea in my opponent's mind that I might be bluffing or just weak in the hand, I usually try to target my suck bets at between 40-60% of the current pot size at the river. This is for two key reasons: First, around half the size of the curent pot is usually a sufficient enough size by the time the river hits that it will represent a significant addition to my stack if my opponent calls. I don't want to be dilly dallying with things like suck bets if I'm only going to add an extra 5% or something to the pot. And secondly, I like the 40-60% of the pot range for my suck bets because this is usually small enough that it entices many opponents to go ahead and pay me off, in situations where if I was moving allin, or even betting the full pot, they would reluctantly fold.

So, for example, at left you can see a situation where I have top pair top kicker with big slick at the river, on a board that contains no draws other than the unlikely QJ for the straight, a straight which would have required my opponent to have called my preflop raise with an easily-dominated hand preflop, so I'm not realistically worried there. With a current pot size of 750 chips, I want to get my opponent to pay me off here with what is probably either top pair lower kicker, or some other kind of board pair. So, as you can see, I hit the guy with a 450 chip bet. It is deceptively tricky because for only another 450 chips out of his 5500-chip stack, he can make sure I am ahead, and hopefully make a nice call to win another decent pot early. Here, he called my suck bet, and lost with his underpair to my TPTK.

The suck bet can also work against a river bet from your opponent, as seen here at left. Here, my opponent bet 720 chips into a 1380-chip pot at the river, and I went for the reraiso 1800. Sure I could have moved him allin here, but I figured I would have lost him with that strong move, so instead I went for just a bit more than a minraise. Just enough to make me happy when he calls, yet just little enough to get the call that I want from him. That's the idea with the suck bet -- like the end result of this particular hand, make the guy call you even while he is typing in "I'll call and pay you." The guy knows he's going to lose, but he just can't bring himself to fold whatever he's got in his hand for the size bet that I've thrown at him on the river.

I'm just coming up for air after several days of being utterly swamped at my day job, and I finally have the opportunity to report about something pretty rare that I did last week. I played some live poker in one of the clubs in New York City. The game was a $100 buyin freezeout tournament, no-limit holdem, and 37 players sat down at 8pm ET for a run at the top 5 payout spots, with $1300+ going to first place, and around $150 awarded to 5th. In my few other attempts in the city's poker clubs, I have not had much luck, failing to cash in maybe 7 or 8 attempts in these live tournaments, despite having had quite a bit of success in online tournaments of the same games. Nonetheless, I headed to the club last week with a decent dose of optimism, as I've been running well online lately and was really looking to translate this into my club performance for the first time.

I've written about this several times before on my own blog, but I will just say it again here because I think it bears repeating: for someone who has had a lot of success playing poker online, where you only have the timing and pattern of your opponent's bets to guide you in laying a read on someone, live poker can be really easy. I mean, shockingly, amazingly easy. Getting to see someone's facial expression when the flop hits the board, watching their eyes when they first view their hole cards, and seeing other non-facial things like the way a player handles their chips during the hand, can almost make it seem unfair to someone who usually never even gets to see their opponents during play.

With all this in mind, on hand #3 of the live tournament, I found Aces in the pocket, and a put in a standard preflop raise of 3 times the big blind. The young, aggro internet-looking player a few seats to my right reraises me from the blinds, and from just a moment's glance at him -- his face, his posture, really his entire demeanor -- it was balls obvious that he had a nice pocket pair himself there. So, I decided to really lay the trap and just smooth call his reraise. Well, when the flop brought three rags, knowing what I knew about my opponent's hand, I went for the big raise when he bet the size of the pot, and unfortunately he laid down what turned out to be two Queens.

Before I could even pile up all the new chips coming my way, two hands later I peel up the corners of my hole cards and see two beautiful red Aces staring up at me again. This time it's the older guy across the table from me who raises 3x preflop. I took a quick look at the guy's face (through my shades of course -- I'm a big sunglasses guy when I play live in the clubs or in casinos), and he just looks really eager to get it on. Again this is the kind of thing that you just don't get to see when you play online, and yet it was so obvious to me when I'm looking this guy right in the face, that I just had to put this guy on a big hand as well. So, I reraise him just twice his bet, trying to give him the rope to hang himself, which he grabs a full hold of by re-reraising me right back. Again, from his physical mannerisms, it was absolutely obvious I was looking at someone holding either pocket Aces or pocket Kings. Since I had pocket Aces myself, I figured it is far more likely that he has two Kings, and for that reason I just went ahead and moved in the rest of my chips on an allin re-re-reraise. Now, if this guy was a real man -- which surely I am not, if this is the criteria -- he should have known that my fourth raise meant I had Aces. But obviously pocket Kings are darn near impossible to lay down before the flop. He couldn't, and within just the first orbit I had a nice chip lead in the event.

Long story short, fast forward 4 hours later, and I was eliminated from the tournament in 2nd place when the eventual winner managed to nab pocket Aces not once but twice in the span of 3 hands when down to just three players left. Still, this goes down as easily my best ever performance in a live game, at least as far as playing against the tougher kind of competition that you only really run into in the casinos, the clubs or similar venues like that. I mean, sure I've won live tournaments among 50 or 60 of my friends, but -- no offense if any of my New York City poker friends are reading this -- those guys are not exactly what I'd call really high caliber poker players as a general statement. Taking 2nd place and winning nearly a grand in cash money for about 4 hours of work in an NYC poker club is really a testament to what I've been saying about online vs. live play. If you play enough hands online, and keep working on laying the right reads on people using only the very limited information you will have about your opponents -- again, just the timing and the amount of their bets -- this can translate quickly into some very profitable habits and skills when you go back to playing live, in-the-flesh poker. As I've said, after a few months of only online play, showing up in a casino, or even just a low-key poker homegame with friends -- I really find that the skills I've honed in reading people from limited cues online leaves me almost feeling sensory overload at the live poker table, where I am just seeing so many cues and hints and tells from various players. It's almost like taking candy from a baby.

Between full tilt's wide range of regularly available tournaments, and pokerstars' new and exciting multi-table tournament schedule, there are countless options to continue to practice on all of our online tournament games, whether in preparation and practice for live play, or just for the fun or profitability in their own right. Whatever your motivation, here's to poker success for you all during the new year -- both the live and the online variety (drink your shot now).

Just a quick reminder that tonight is the latest installment of Mondays at the Hoy. This is the weekly private tournament that I host on Pokerstars, and it is always a lot of fun for me and most of the other regular (and not-so-regular) players. Below are the registration details for the event:

What: Mondays at the Hoy No-Limit Hold'em Tournament
When: Monday night, 10pm ET
Where: Pokerstars, Tournaments, "Private" tab
How Much: $20 + $2
Password: hammer
Who: Open to anyone and everyone

Just log in to Pokerstars, go to the "Tournaments" and then the "Private" tab, find the Mondays at the Hoy tournament, register using the password "hammer", and you're in. It's as simple as that. And as I've said many times before here, we always love fresh meat new faces at Mondays at the Hoy, where we've been averaging one or two first-timers in most of the last several weeks. So if you've never before played an online poker tournament with the degenerates bloggers, why not make tonight the night that you venture into the world of trash talk, preflop pushmonkeying and just general all-around donkery and come join in the fun.

See you tonight at Mondays at the Hoy!

In the conclusion to this five-part post, we will complete the analysis of my $1-$2 no-limit holdem cash hand where I flopped a set of 3s, bet half the pot and got called in two places on the flop. Then I checked the turn, to give an impression of weakness, and one opponent bet a measly quarter of the pot, found a caller in late position and then I smooth called as well since I was not afraid of any of the possible draws created by the turn card. The river then paired the turn card, giving me a boat -- albeit the lowest possible boat -- at the end, and action was to me to start the river betting round. In Part IV of this post I asked what you would recommend doing here.

I was pleased to see that none of the commenters thought I should be fcheck-folding, just because there are some hands out there that would beat me -- specifically, 55, TT, KK, K3, K5 and KT. Drizz said he likes the check-call here, and I think that's a reasonable strategy, although I was feeling a bit more aggressive than this suggestion at the time. In my view my opponents here did not play their hands like they held any of the pocket pairs, since there were calls all around on a cheapish bet on both the flop and the turn, and in most cases I would have expected a raise either before the flop, on the flop or on the turn card if someone had flopped or turned a set. And I just can't see people calling that flop bet if they held just K3 or K5, and the odds of someone holding KT were just astronomically low here. So I had to figure I was ahead. And, I had bet small on the flop, then check-called the turn, so I had done a good job projecting weakness so far and figured I ought to try to make some more use of that if at all possible. The second King coming on the river I took as a very good sign, in that to the extent that someone had bet or called the turn with a King in their hand, that second King was going to make this awfully hard to just check out on the river here.

Taking all this into account, I ended up checking the river here, with the full intention of check-raising when the action got back to me. As I said, the second King on the river had me thinking I was not only ahead, but in good shape to induce a bet from someone else who had hopefully called the turn with something and now was even stronger thanks to the second King falling at the end. With $67 in the pot at this point in the hand, I would have been really bummed to not make any more profit from the hand, but I had a strong feeling that if I bet, someone would have a King and call me, but that if I wait and let them bet instead, then I could get them to call a much larger raise from me since they would already be seriously invested in this pot at the time. So it was a risk that I would miss out on more profit here, but one I was willing to take as I really felt that the King on the river helped make this an easy bet-out for anyone holding any kind of a King in their hand.

And that's when it happened.

The first player responded to my river check by moving allin, although it was only for his or her last $17.50 in chips. so not a lot at all into a pot that was currently $67 before the river card fell. Then the second player topped that by min-raising the first player's bet, as you can see at left. So now it was $35 to me to win a $102 pot. In order to call, I would have to be best at least 2 out of 3 times here. Try as I might, I simply could not shake the feeling that I was ahead. I had gotten exactly what I wanted: some action when the second King fell on the river. I figured at least one of these players, if not both, had to have a King, but the first player's allin move for his last $17 did not do much to convince me he was sitting on a big boat or anything, and the pussy min-raise from the late position player absolutely did not seem boat-ish to me at all. If anything, that one seemed like a King with a low kicker, or maybe a high pocket pair, anything that figured to have a better shot of winning if he could get me to fold whatever I was holding. No way I was going to run from that bet there, from either of them even. I just didn't see anything in either player's actions to indicate a boat.

Since I thought my boat was best, I did what I had to do and put the late-position player allin as well here. He called, and I dragged a $242 pot, one of the largest I have won in online no-limit holdem cash play. In the end, using the handy-dandy "Last Hand" feature in the top left corner of the screen, I was able to check and see what each player held in his hand. The first bettor to my left, who moved in the rest of his chips on the river when the second King fell, actually held QTo, and figured his top pair on the flop with a Queen kicker had probably held up to lead the hand at the end. Meanwhile, the late position min-raiser on the river did in fact have a set of Kings, holding K7s. So here was a case where a slow-play actually managed not to cost me a hand in online holdem play, and in fact was just the perfect thing to allow both of my opponents to catch up enough to believe they were best, and therefore give me (willingly) the rest of their chips on the river.

Thank you as always to everyone for your well thought-out comments as always. I should be back shortly with another Hot Hand post here at Cardsquad. In the meantime, if you're looking for another fun hand to analyze, check out my blog today for a new Hot Hand post there in a fun razz hand I played with a bunch of bloggers last week. That is a fun one where I start out with the best possible starting razz hand, and end up head to head against someone else who shows quite a bit of strength from the beginning all the way to the end of the hand.

OK so if you've been following along with the first three parts to this post, you know that we're playing $1-$2 no-limit holdem cash on full tilt, I flopped a set with pocket 3s, bet half the pot on the flop and got two callers, and then checked the turn card, the King♥, in the hopes of inducing a bet from someone who is behind my set. In the last post I asked what you would do in the situation at left, where my turn check was met with a $10 bet and a call of that bet across the felt. Interestingly, one thing a few of the commenters seemed to key on was losing this hand to someone who is drawing here, and the need therefore to bet fairly strongly here, at least enough to price out any drawing hands. Now, if you know me and you know my play, then you know I'm not one to give many free cards in any circumstances, but in this case I did not feel the urgency that some of the commenters did in this case, because of the texture of the flop itself.

In this hand, the flop came T53 rainbow. Even though the turn card brought a King of hearts, to go along with the Ten of hearts already on the flop, try as I might I just could not get myself scared by that card on the turn. Of course someone could be drawing now, and I would not want to give away a free card to that person under any circumstances given how big the pot has already become. But, this isn't Omaha, where I would really want to bet out here to protect my hand since everyone has so many holecards that basically anyone could easily have backed into a drawing hand here on the turn. And that's exactly why I wasn't scared about protecting against drawing hands here -- with only two players in, and only two holecards per player in holdem, I found the odds to be exceedingly low that anyone was drawing here. Who exactly am I afraid of holding exactly QJ, who called a half-pot bet on the flop? I can't see it. And the same thing with two random hearts. Who called the halfpot bet on the flop, with three players in no less, with just two random hearts in their hand? I'm just not buying it.

And that's why I just smooth called the $10 turn bet here. I figured the odds of someone drawing at anything were very small, since they would have had to totally back into any draw with the lucky turn card. And, even if they did have a draw, my set is still a favorite to win with only one card to come (any straight or flush draw will have only a roughly 20% chance of filling on the river against my made hand), and on top of that, I have a 10-out redraw to at least a boat (any Ten, Five, King or the case Three will do it for me). I was still hoping that someone maybe had a King and would be willing to put in some more of their stack on the river, depending on what falls.

A second later the river fell: The King♠. So, there would be no flush on this hand, and no straight either. And now, I've made a boat, 3s full of Kings. Action is to me on the river, with $67 now in the pot with all the cards on the board.

What would you recommend now? Am I leading out with my hand that beats anything other than KK, TT, 55, KT, K5 or K3? Have either of my opponents played this like they are holding one of those hands? How much would you bet here? Or, are you more scared of the second King on the river, and now want to just check it down and see a cheap showdown? Am I even looking at this point to make the most from this hand, or rather just to lose the least? What's the best move here?

I'm back today for the third installment in my latest Hot Hand post, where I cover a hand that saw me take a cheapo flop with pocket 3s and then flop a set on a raggy board of T53 rainbow. In Part I, I asked how you would suggest I play on the flop after nailing my set. Most commenters agreed with what I eventually did on that flop, which was to bet out a smallish amount and hope to achieve both of my main goals at this point in the hand: (1) get some money into the pot, while (2) still appearing weak to my opponents in the hopes that they will pay me off better later in the hand. After betting half the pot on the flop, both of my opponents called my weakish bet, and then the turn card brought a King, arguably a good card as many commenters to Part II of this post pointed out since it is likely to make somebody something decent at that point in the hand. In Part II, I asked the readers how they would suggest playing the turn card, having bet small on the flop and found two callers across the felt from me.

Again, most of the commenters seemed to take a similar approach to the one I actually took in this hand. The general thinking here is, I have set this hand up so far as if I am weak weak weak, and, since I am actually very strong in reality, it makes good sense for me to continue to project a weak image in order to get my opponents to make a serious move at what is now a $38 pot heading into the King♥ on the turn. I agree with this approach 100%. Barring pure bluffs, which are few and far between for me, two things need to happen most of the time I make a big hand in a no-limit holdem cash game: #1, I need to make a big hand, and #2, I need someone to be willing to put a pile of chips into the pot against my strong made hand. Here' #1 already happened for me on the flop, and for #2, I'm staring in the face the likelihood that my opponents will put me on nothing good if I play my cards right here (pun intended). And I was not about to let this opportunity slip away.
I straight-up checked it on the turn. Here I am really going for the gold and trying to get deep into my opponents' heads, using Level 3 thinking. I know I have a good hand (Level 1). I have no reason to believe either opponent is anywhere near as strong as I am in the hand (Level 2). Level 3 kicks in where I try to figure what my opponents think I am holding. And when I check this turn card to them, I am screaming indicating to them that I took a stab with an inferior hand on the flop, found not just one but two callers, and am now shutting down for good. Any self-respecting nlh cash player will have to bet at me now on this round, and I had no doubt that would work here as well.

And it did work, as the first opponent to my left bet out $10 into the $38 pot. This was a weakass bet, one that I could only assume he expected to get called with, and he did in fact get called by my other opponent as well. I think this was a very transparent bet my the turn bettor here, as a bet of 1/4 the pot almost screams out that he has a decently strong hand at this point, and that he's not worried about letting anyone get a free card on the river. I supposed at the time that it could have been just a flush draw that this guy picked up on the turn with two hearts in his hand, but most likely I figured he was on some sort of decent King, and felt fairly sure he was in front here.

So, what do you suggest now? I've got a bettor and a caller of a $10 bet to me, into what is now a $58 pot. I still have to feel fairly certain I am ahead here, as there is no way that the King♥ is scaring me into thinking my trip 3s are now somehow behind. I suppose someone with pocket 5s was possible, but highly unlikely, and I discounted pocket 10s or pocket Kings because of the lack of a preflop raise in the hand. So my 3s were almost surely still best. Would you raise it here and try to either take it down now, or get some more money into the pot? Or do you call here and take your chances with the river card? How are you going to get the most of your opponents' money into the middle here, while still adequately protecting your hand?

In Part I of this post, I presented a situation where I have seen a cheap 4-way flop with pocket 3s, and then gone on to hit a set of 3s on the flop, with the action checked to me in the big blind, and I asked whether you all think a bet or a check is the best move here. After reviewing the comments, it appears that the readers are generally split as between checking here or betting out. Most of the commenters who advocated betting out seem to agree with my general theory of not betting too much, because, as I mentioned in Part I, the last thing I ever want to do is chase everyone else out after I pick up a huge hand on the flop. So the options seem to be either to check here and either let someone else do the betting on the flop (or just wait for the turn to start pushing with your set), or to bet out small, possibly indicating some weakness to an opponent trying to get a read on me.

In the end, I opted to bet out here. My thinking, as I have written about several times in my own blog, is that in my experience, the vast majority of online holdem players automatically check the flop if they pick up three of a kind. Just about everyone seems to do the check-the-flop-and-then-bet-then-turn-strongly thing when they flop a well-hidden set, and as a result, people also seem to be a bit more wary of other players who check the flop but then bet out on the turn, since I often find that people usually expect others to play the game generally the same way that they themselves would play it. As a result, I tend to bet out when I flop a set more often than most people, because it doesn't tend to be interpreted as indicating a set nearly as often as one would think.

So I bet out, betting just half the pot in the hopes that my bet would be interpreted as some kind of a probe bet or some form of weakness from me. I got basically what I wanted, as both middle position players called, while the small blind folded. So three players saw the turn card, with now $38 sitting in the pot. The turn card is the King♥. With the small blind now out of the hand, action begins with me on this betting round.

Now what? Do I lead out here, now that the pot has grown significantly from where it was after the flop? How much would you bet in relation to the $38 in the pot currently? Or, do you check it here and try to induce a bet from one of the other two players left in the pot? What's the best move here?

I'll be back tomorrow with the next part of this post, and I look forward to your comments in the interim.

For today's Hot Hand column, I want to review a hand scenario that we all love...flopping trips. You know what it's like: you limp in preflop, hoping desperately to see a cheap flop and maybe, just maybe, just this one time, you can flop some trips and actually (hopefully) get some action on those trips without scaring everyone else away. For me, I am at the point in my no-limit holdem game where I no longer mind chasing everyone out preflop when I have a monster starting hand like Aces or Kings -- as long as I am only putting in my standard preflop raise, if that standard raise chases everyone else out of the pot before the flop, then so be it. I am confident that I played the hand the right way, the smartest way, and if I get no action on my standard preflop raise, I'm at the point where I don't mind that outcome. But one thing I really can't stand is playing a small pocket pair to see a cheap flop, nailing my 1-in-8 chance of flopping trips, and then chasing everyone out of the pot on the flop and failing to make any serious coin from this truly rare occurrence in no-limit holdem.

So, the setup for today's hand is at a $1-$2 no-limit holdem cash game on full tilt, where I have been sitting at the table for about 30 minutes, and I have been playing solid, aggressive poker to the tune of a $70 profit on top of the $200 I sat down at the table with. Blinds are $1-$2, and I am seated in the big blind with pocket 3s. One middle position player limps for $2, the next player makes it $4 to go, and the small blind calls the $4. With the action back around to me, I go for the cheap $2 call and see a cheap 4-way flop with my pocket 3s.

The flop comes 3T5 rainbow. Bingo! I've flopped my trips, and with just the small preflop minraise, I am not particularly afraid of anyone else holding a higher trips. No flush draw is possible, and the board is highly unlikely to have created any meaningful straight draws for any of my opponents either. So I'm thinking in great shape here with my trips on the flop.

The pot contains $15.20, and the small blind checks the flop to me.

How would you play this here? Do you check your trips, hope someone else bets the flop, and either way prepare to put in a large-ish bet on the turn? Or do you bet it out here and hope to catch some callers, or someone who may have been slowplaying a big pair preflop? If you do want to bet out here, how much? What is the best way to get the most of your opponents' total chips in this pot now while you still believe you are the solid favorite?

I will be back tomorrow with the next update to this flopped trips hand, but would love to get everyone's thoughts in the comments on this, one of the most enjoyable situations in all of no-limit holdem, especially for a guy like me who always tries to see a cheap flop with my pocket pairs.

Well I suppose it should come as no surprise that the majority of comments to Part II of this post say that I need to fold to Pauly's raise and Maigrey's call of that raise here on the turn. Given that most of the commenters believed I should be folding automatically on the flop with just a nut flush draw on a low-paired board, it stands to reason that at this point, given the strong action from both remaining players in the hand even after the turn card here, that same concept ought to permeate the comments I've received at this point in the hand.

If you recall from Part II, I shared my opinion that I do not believe in folding a nut flush draw on the flop every time the board is paired. A low pair and not too many other players in the pot make it all the more likely that my nut flush will still go on to win the hand if I make it, and the pot should be potentially a big one if someone does happen to have a set of 5s once the flop hits. Even the best scenario for players holding trips still has them filling to make a boat in the last two cards typically at no more than 10 outs, so I would still be a favorite to win against a player who flopped a set if I can hit my flush. So, when the pot odds look right to me, I tend towards calling and trying to see the next card as cheaply as possible.

Despite all this, however, I will freely admit that I had a lot of doubts once Pauly raised this hand on the turn, and even more doubts once Maigrey called the raise. At this point it just became one of those situations where your gut tells you you're beat, but you let your brain talk you into calling down anyways. You know, "just in case". In this case, I let the math of the situation be the convincing factor, using the juicy pot odds to draw to my nut flush to tell me I basically "had" to call, and basically willfully ignoring the fact that those 1-in-5 odds I had of making my flush might very well not be the best hand already anyways. So, despite all the warnings to the contrary, I went ahead and called the raise and smooth call here and saw a cheap river card.

And got just what I wanted -- a third club. At least, I think this was what I wanted. So now, I am ahead of anyone unless they have a full house, and in order to have a full boat right now, that would mean they would have to hold either (1) a 5 plus a Queen, King or Ten, or (2) two Queens, two Kings or two Tens (or of course two fives for quads). That's it. The only hands that beat me here are 5Q, 5K, 5T, 55, QQ, KK or TT. Given that both of my opponents were already betting out on the flop, I tend to highly discount the 5K, 5T, KK or TT possibilities because they did not exist as possibilities on the flop and yet both opponents bet at that point. So, realistically speaking, in my own mind I was ahead of anything realistic other than 55, 5Q or QQ. These hands are just so unlikely, that now that the flush had filled on the river I had to go for it. I bet out for 80 chips as you can see from the graphic at left.

And that's when Pauly raised. Again. For the second time in this hand, Pauly raised where I thought for sure he would fold or, at most, call. Maigrey insta-folded after Pauly kicked it up, with what turned out to be just a 5 in her hand for flopped trips. Maigrey claimed her fold was because of Pauly's raise on the river, which I'm sure had a lot to do with it, but the flush draw filling on the end with three players in this pot more or less meant that Maigrey was way behind at this point, so that's not a bad fold. But you know the worst part about this hand? I still called Pauly's raise on the river. I can't really say why I did it. I knew Pauly had me beat with a boat. His raise even after the third flush card fell on the river all but iced it. So I knew I was beat. But I couldn't bring myself to fold, unlike in no-limit poker where Pauly might have bet my entire stack on the river such that I could lay down my flush. Here, I just couldn't do it. Not for another measly 80 chips into a now 1200-chip pot. So, since I knew I was behind, I went ahead and typed into the chat "I am so clearly losing to Pauly's boat. I hate knowing that but still calling." Just so they knew that I wasn't fooled by any of this.

End result: Pauly held a pair of Queens in his hand, for the flopped boat that never improved later in the hand, but never needed to either. Oh well. Did I mention that Omaha is a game of the freakin' nuts?

Thanks as always to everyone for their comments. I'll be back next week with another fun hand for us all to analyze and share opinions on.

If you recall, in Part I of this post I detailed a hand the early stages of a limit Omaha hilo tournament among some bloggers on full tilt. Long story short, I flopped the nut flush draw on a 55Q flop, so with very little likelihood of a low hand being made on the hand. The sb checked, I checked behind, and then Dr. Pauly on the button bet out. Maigrey in the sb then proceeded to check-raise, leaving me with a decision of cold calling the 80-chip bet, raising, or folding and waiting for a better situation. This is the question I put to you earlier in the week in Part I of this post.

I have to admit, I was and am very surprised at the amount of commenters who said I should just fold here. I like the reasoning to some degree -- I have very little invested in this pot so far, and with the pair on the flop, I could easily be drawing dead to a made full house, or at least up against someone with trips who is drawing at a boat to beat any flush I could make. Several commenters remind me of my own advice from an earlier article of mine here, that Omaha is a game of the nuts, and with my best likely hand being a nut flush that can still lose to any number of full houses with a pair on the flop, I should just fold and get out for nothing while I still can.

That is decent advice. But it's not what I did. Personally, I was not happy about the check-raise from Maigrey, a known excellent player of all the poker variations, and I wasn't happy about Pauly (another great multi-game player) betting out when it was double-checked to him on the flop as well. But, I just don't see how folding the nut flush draw every time a pair flops is the right move. Given that the pair on the board is low, I would still expect the vast majority of Omaha high pots to be won by flushes (or worse), so in my view I have a good draw at the winning hand. Given all this, I went ahead and made the smooth call, hoping to hit my flush on the turn and then find out where I'm really at. But make no mistake here, all things being equal the odds of one of my opponents holding two Queens or a five and a Queen are exceedingly low, regardless of who or how checkraised me on this hand.

The turn brought an unhelpful (for me) King♠. Before I could say "dammit", Maigrey had led out at me for 80 chips. With her checkraise on the flop, and now the lead-out bet on the seemingly harmless turn card, I put her squarely on trips here. Trips, which my flush draw would beat if I could hit it on the river. Now, I know the odds of me making that flush with one card to come are around 19%, just under 1 in 5. In the pot, I needed to call 80 chips to win a pot of 560 chips, giving me more than enough pot odds to stay in for one more round, and that's not even counting the implied odds considerations since Maigrey likely has trips, and maybe one of them has a non-nut flush draw that could really pay me off if one more club falls on the river. So I made that call for 80 chips as well, hoping for a friendly river club that would take me to big-pot land early on in this tournament.

Before I got to see my hopefully friendly river card, however, another wrench was thrown into my plans. Dr. Pauly raised it up to 160 chips. Maigrey smooth called Pauly's raise, and action was to me.

Uh oh. Now what? I'm now looking at calling another 80 chips to win a pot of 880, laying me 11-to-1 for my 4-to-1 shot at the nut flush. So clearly I've got the odds, as long as I'm not drawing dead to a boat. I understand most of you believe I should have folded on the flop here, but what's the right move now? Is this a clear fold, despite the slamming pot odds I'm getting to draw at my nut flush? Or is someone definitely boated up and trying to extract maximum value here? Could I be up against a King- or Queen-high flush draw who might pay me big time if I hit it on the river? What's the best play here, and why?

I'll be back on Friday with the conclusion to this post, including discussion of today's comments as well as what actually happened and what everyone was holding in their respective hands. Until then, please comment and let me know your thoughts on where the hand has gone thus far.

OK so here is the conclusion to my Playing Flopped Quads post from earlier this week. I'm going to go ahead and finish this despite Waffles' insistence in the comments that no one cares about this. For those of you who don't know him (how that could be, I don't know), Waffles is the kind of guy whose blog you just have to check every day. You really never know when he's going to go on a rant to end all rants, and let me tell you, as surely as there is no uberpost like a true Iggy uberpost (clink link for Iggy's blog's snazzy new digs btw), there is also no rant like a Waffles rant. Go read his archives if you don't believe me. You'll believe soon enough. So I take his comments with a grain of salt, in particular comments about the time he ended up betting into flopped quads on the river in front of all his blogger friends. Not that I'm saying in any way that Waffles misplayed the hand here -- quite the contrary, I think he played it just the way he should, managing to see a river for cheap and then trying to take down the pot when he thought it was his for the taking.

So if you recall from yesterday, I've successfully check-called my way to the last card here after flopping quads, managing to keep not one but both other players in the pot to the river to hopefully hit some kind of hand. At least one of the players has played this hand so far exactly like someone on a flush draw would play it, and now the flush has mercifully come in on the river. Adding to the drama is Waffles betting out for 250 chips into the 550-chip pot once the flush card hits. If you recall my initial read from the flop action, I had Don in the cutoff on some kind of Queen, and I had Waffles on the draw, so I'm hopeful here I can get something more out of Waffles before this hand is done. I will admit I did briefly consider the smooth call here, in the hopes that Don might raise with his top pair, but I quickly decided that the presence of the flush card on the river, combined with Waffles' bet after that flush card hit the board, made it unlikely that Don would even call a bet, let alone raise here.

So, since I just don't see Don raising or calling if I smooth call Waffles' bet, and I obviously have the nuts here, I have to raise to try to get Waffles to commit more. There are now 800 chips in the pot, I'm facing 250 to call Waffles' river bet, and I've got 1125 chips behind, while Waffles has 2750 more chips in his stack. The commenters generally seem to believe I need to raise it up significantly, at least 3x Waffles' bet, and many commenters believe I should just push allin here. I tried at this point to consider the likely outcome of both options, and the likely cards Waffles was holding given the action on every street of the hand.

First off, remember this was a limp-in pot preflop, so I'm not necessarily putting Waffles on having an Ace for a nut flush. If I had been confident that Waffles held a nut flush (which I would be much more confident of if the hand had been raised preflop) or some kind of full house, clearly I would have pushed here for sure. There is no doubt that any red-blooded human being will call any size bet with a hidden boat or the nut flush on this board, and he'd be a damn fool not to given the way the action has gone in this hand. But the problem is, I have him on a flush but I don't necessarily think he has the nut flush. The preflop multiway limp is more indicative of Waffles holding something more of the any-two-suited variety, so I'm thinking if I push it all in, is Waffles likely to call here? Again with an allin bet I would be forcing Waffles to call another 875 chips out of his 2750 chip stack. Given those two numbers, I really thought Waffles was pretty committed to calling any size bet I can make here with my short stack. There are surely some players out there who might lay down a hand like a rivered flush when I have shown no aggression at all thus far in the hand (limp preflop, check-call on the flop, check the turn) but then suddenly push allin after the flush card hits -- heck check out Blinders' blog for a post about him laying down pocket Kings preflop in a cash game just this week -- but those players are truly few and far between, and I can say with certainty that Waffles is not one of those people. So I had to push it all in here, and hope he had made a nice flush that he had to pay me off with.

Waffles called my allin bet, and mucked his hand when I showed my pocket 6s. Dems Quads Beeeeatches!!! This enabled me to double up, getting me back to even and giving me just enough life to donk my way out of the Big Game just short of the final table. What else is new.

Anyone curious what Waffles was holding in this hand? Anybody want to guess?